Public evidence brief · Churchill River desk · Newfoundland and Labrador
Keep the power here. Use it on loads that live here.
Newfoundland and Labrador generates about 43 of green electricity a year and sends most of it across the Québec border. The Churchill Falls / Gull Island , signed 17 August 2026, is a , not binding . The House endorsed that framework 21–18 on 17 September. Binding paper is still ahead. The industrial question is whether this province keeps is used here: mines and Labrador industry first. is not the opener. It lives on a separate page.
Prepared by Open People · St. John's, NL · Updated 2026-09-22 · Public briefing · DCIA framework, not PPAs · Open People is not a party to the agreement.
Last verified public documents onlyUNKNOWN labelled
01 — The situation
One paragraph.
Newfoundland and Labrador owns one of the cleanest large power systems in North America. Churchill Falls alone is 5,428 . For decades it has been sold at a small fraction of what firm, carbon-free power commands today. In May 2026 the found the not in the long-term public interest as written. It cited limited rights to use the power in-province. On 17 August NL Hydro, Hydro-Québec and CF(L)Co signed the DCIA, announced with Ottawa in St. John's. It promises more in public framing, a higher reported export price, a Labrador West line and a wind study. It is a framework, not binding PPAs. The House endorsed it 21–18 on 17 September, with no referendum. That vote does not create contracts. Binding agreements are targeted around 31 December 2026. The framework can run to 31 March 2027. Québec votes 5 October. The province's stated industrial use is critical minerals. Mining matters, and it is first. Compute is optionality: not confirmed as reserved megawatts, price, queue or policy preference.
02 — The asset
What the province actually holds.
Megawatts drawn by how hard the number is. Solid is published. Outlined is announcement language. Hatched is preliminary. Dashed is not published.
The province generated 44.3 TWh in 2023, and 43.1 TWh of it was renewable: 97.4%. It is hydro-dominated, dispatchable, and concentrated at a handful of interconnection points. For scale, 1,000 MW running all year is about 8.76 TWh. This is a large resource and a finite one. It should be allocated deliberately, not treated as limitless.
03 — The value gap
The export price is rising. The value-added still leaves the province.
Seven price families on one axis, each on its own row, labelled and not merged. Every rung carries its source. The one that would matter for a new Labrador load is blank.
Each row measures something different. A starting price, a fifty-year average and a household tariff cannot be subtracted from one another. The desk labels them and refuses to merge them. Source for each rung is under its number.
Heritage export (1969 renewal)
Rejected 2024 MOU path (IRC)
Reported HQ ¢ path (not a locked PPA)
HQ proposed data-centre rate
Under the 1969-lineage contract, Churchill Falls export power is priced at two , 0.2 , until 2041. That is an export price under a specific contract. It is not a rate anyone here can buy power at today.
The rejected 2024 MOU averaged about 5.9¢/kWh in 2024 dollars. The Independent Review took that average apart: about 3.8¢ from 2025 to 2041, then about 16.7¢ from 2042 to 2075. That path is history. NL Hydro has said Hydro-Québec will pay 1.8¢/kWh from 2027, rising about 14% a year to 11.5¢ by 2041. That is a reported path, not a signed contract price.
In February 2026 Hydro-Québec proposed a dedicated data-centre rate of 13¢/kWh for loads of 5 MW and up. It still expects takers. Québec is rationing and repricing exactly the hydro-seeking compute demand Labrador could serve. Near-term, this province would still sell the underlying power at a fraction of that.
The number that would matter for a new Labrador mine, or any new load, is the signed industrial cent for retained power. It is not published. We do not invent it.
Language discipline
The 0.2¢ figure is an export price under a specific contract. We never present it as a rate available to any customer today. Island retail sits on a different grid and a different tariff. This brief is a value-retention argument, not a grievance argument.
04 — The window
Why this is still a 2026 decision, not a finished deal.
The are the skeleton for contracts that do not yet exist. Each row below is a tracker entry with its own sources. Dates on the gate clock carry their status.
- Dec 2024
Province and Hydro-Québec announce an MOU
The province and Hydro-Québec announced a memorandum to replace the Churchill Falls terms and enable expansions, framed as a 2025–2075 arrangement. It expired 30 April 2026.
- 19 May 2026
Independent Churchill River Review reports
The Review found the MOU, as configured, not in the overall best long-term interest of the province. It flagged limits on using the power for in-province development, transmission access, pricing and governance.
- 2026
Cooperation paper signed
NL Hydro, Hydro-Québec, and CF(L)Co signed a cooperation paper in August. It is a framework for writing later contracts — not the contracts that lock the power.
- 2026
House said yes 21–18
The House said yes 21–18 after a special sitting, with no referendum. That is a political yes. It does not write power-purchase contracts.
- 18 Sep 2026
Back to the House — but no promised vote
The Premier says the deal comes back to the House before the binding contracts are signed. He has not said MHAs will get a vote. The next decision point may have no vote attached.
- 2026
Québec votes 5 October
The next public political gate is the Québec election. It is not an NL door you can walk through. The party that signed the paper is running third in the polls, and the front-runner has said it does not plan to tear the deal up — but it wants time to study it.
- /2026 / 2027
Binding contracts still unsigned
The parties say they want the real contracts around year-end. The framework clock can run into March 2027 unless they replace or extend it. While it runs, Hydro-Québec holds exclusive rights on Gull Island.
Public framing on announcement day: the province retains up to 2,350 MW from Churchill Falls and , plus 400 MW from Labrador wind if built. Not binding PPAs. Compute is still not named as a reserved use. On announcement day the mines minister named critical minerals. He did not name AI.
The corridor the mines need
The Review recommended new transmission from Churchill Falls to Labrador West specifically to enable energy-intensive industry. The August framework attaches money to that line. What is still missing is a public allocation: year, megawatts, place, price and line. Mines first, then other industrial load, including compute if the province writes it.
- — proposed 735 kV transfer limit, a planning figure
- — on the two 230 kV lines today
Schematic only. Line lengths and positions carry no geographic meaning. Export share from the CER provincial profile. Corridor status from NL Hydro's Labrador West study page.
The mining corridor from Churchill Falls to Labrador West is already tight. The August announcement attaches money to a new line. Engineering and permits are under way this fall. Nobody has published when it switches on.
Still open in the text
A consultant told the House a three-year notice recall could let the province keep more power at home. That is testimony. It is not confirmed in signed contract text.
wrote MHAs on 17 September urging a no vote, and says the paper cuts its benefits by more than half. On 21 September the Grand Chief said the Innu are ready to meet. No meeting is scheduled. They were never invited to the table. Partnership, royalty and Gull Island tariff path remain open.
has not received proponent confirmation that 2026 Gull Island matches the 2012 review. The 2026 plant as described is larger than the roughly 2,000 MW studied then.
The wind company, an , is unnamed and at NL Hydro's sole discretion. We do not invent the name, a dollar figure or a federal share.
05 — Neighbouring grids (context)
Demand has repriced power elsewhere. That is not a Labrador reservation.
Neighbouring-grid facts that used to open this brief now live on the compute page, a separate page. They are context for leftover firm hydro, not a campus pitch, and not a named industrial class in the Material Terms.
Other provinces are rationing large new computing loads. That is context for leftover hydro — not a Labrador booking. Newfoundland and Labrador has no policy, no tariff, no allocation process and no project.
“Nobody builds AI infrastructure somewhere like Labrador”
Remote, cold and hydro-rich is the profile of the current build-out. Stargate Norway put a hydro-powered campus in Narvik, above the Arctic Circle. Meta has run a hydro-powered campus in Luleå, Sweden, since 2013. Google is expanding in Hamina, Finland. Training is latency-insensitive, so it goes to the power; inference stays near cities. Cold helps. Power decides.
Ottawa is already paying for this
Canada's Sovereign AI Compute Strategy seeks Canadian-owned, Canadian-controlled projects with Indigenous participation. A Labrador consortium of Crown power, Innu equity, an NL developer and Canadian anchor demand fits that description. The first intake closed in 2026. We found no Newfoundland and Labrador entry in the public record, because there was no NL project to enter.
06 — The ask
Five things, none of which cost money.
The province is not being asked to spend, build or subsidise. It is being asked to write five instruments into the architecture of the binding agreements, or the provincial framework beside them, before those agreements lock. House endorsement is not that lock. Year-end 2026 is the public target. The framework can run to 31 March 2027.
Open People ask · not a government figure
- 01A named block. A scheduled allocation of Labrador capacity eligible for industrial load, including compute, drawn from the publicly framed retain from Churchill Falls and Gull Island (section 02), plus wind if built. No firm megawatts, price or queue for Labrador compute is confirmed. An illustrative first tranche of 100–150 MW, as new generation phases in, is our ask. It is not a government figure.
- 02A transparent tariff. A published firm industrial rate, indicatively in the 4–6¢/kWh range, plus full network-addition cost causation. High enough to be unimpeachable after Muskrat Falls. Low enough to beat the data-centre rate Québec has proposed (section 05). The band is ours, not a posted rate.
- 03Allocation criteria that keep the value home. Score for NL majority ownership, Indigenous equity participation, creditworthy offtake, local employment and balance-sheet substance. Criteria, not a ban, are the durable answer to the Great North Data experience.
- 04An infrastructure audit. Direct NL Hydro to publish Labrador dark-fibre capacity and recall-block headroom, and commission a diverse-route fibre feasibility study. Co-fundable with federal connectivity programs.
- 05A federal handshake. A joint NL–Canada expression of interest under the Sovereign AI Compute Strategy, so the next intake window opens with a Labrador consortium already on file.
Every megawatt and cent in this block is an Open People ask. None is a published rate, a reserved block or a government figure.
Item 1 belongs in the binding agreements' architecture or their enabling provincial framework. Items 2 through 5 are ordinary policy instruments the province can move before those agreements lock.
The cost of doing nothing
- 01The retained block defaults to mining and re-export. Public framing gives the province optionality on the retained block, plus wind if built. If other industrial uses, including compute, are not named as eligible, that optionality is spent on other files. Lawfully, and without a second chance inside this architecture.
- 02The federal build-out passes the province by. Every subsidised megawatt lands where a project was ready. The first intake already closed without an NL entry that we can find.
- 03Labrador's industrial story stays minerals-only. Mining is vital. It is also cyclical, and it employs at the mine, not at the grid.
- 042041 arrives with no domestic alternative. The province's leverage in any future negotiation is a credible in-province use for the power: mines, towns, other industry, and compute if written eligible. The absence of that leverage is why 1969 happened.
If nobody writes anything else, the paper already decides.
The Material Terms describe what happens to retained power that is not used at home. It has a buyer. Leftover megawatts do not sit still by magic.
Framework, not executed. These are Material Terms for later contracts. The point is that the west branch is already written and the home branch is not. Tracker row →
If NL does not use retained power at home, the paper already names ways Hydro-Québec can buy it — including a discounted default if there is no three-year notice. Leftover megawatts do not sit still by magic. What means in words a voter can check is still not written.
07 — Who builds it
A consortium, not a champion.
The structure that works, demonstrated at Narvik and consistent with the Review's governance critique, puts each risk with the party built to carry it. It is politically viable after Muskrat Falls because no single champion holds it.
- Power and site
- Crown utility: capacity allocation, brownfield land at the point of generation, transmission.
- Indigenous equity
- Innu Nation and its development entities: ownership from day one, not consultation at the end. The structure federal programs explicitly reward.
- Development
- An NL-based developer entity that assembles the coalition and carries the project.
- Catalyst
- Where Open People sits today. A public campaign for in-province use. Open People is not a DCIA party, an offtake seat or a demand seat, and does not assemble bankable offtake. A catalyst role, not a deal seat.
- Software layer
- Where Open People would sit if partners build. The sovereignty gateway, guardrails and model hosting that make in-province compute usable by buyers who cannot send data offshore.
- Capital
- Infrastructure investors and federal programs, following the power allocation, never preceding it.
Capital does not create power; power attracts capital. Québec, British Columbia, Ontario and Alberta have each just demonstrated which direction that queue runs.
08 — Honest constraints
What is genuinely hard about this.
A case built on cheerleading will fail in this province, and it should. Five constraints are real. None is a reason to leave the block unwritten, because a block that is never reserved is a permanent decision in favour of exporting raw electrons.
Fibre is the weakest link
Labrador's terrestrial backbone is essentially a single route, built in 2012. Region-wide outages from single events are on record. Hyperscale campuses want multiple physically diverse paths. Labrador has approximately one.
The workforce is already spoken for
The Churchill expansion program will itself absorb the province's construction trades at camp premiums. Muskrat Falls remains the controlling cost precedent for remote Labrador construction.
Nothing large proceeds without Innu consent, nor should it
OpenRatification of any Innu Nation partnership on Gull Island remains unresolved. Innu Nation asked MHAs not to vote and says its benefits were cut by more than half. The Premier says he looks forward to sitting down; as of 21 September nothing is scheduled. That is a start, not consent, and not a partnership structure.
The Great North Data precedent
The province's one prior data-centre experience was a Labrador crypto operator that went bankrupt in 2019 owing money to the utility and public agencies. Municipal scepticism toward container mining is earned.
AI demand could correct
Lease cancellations in 2025 and a credible sceptic corpus warn of overbuild. If capex contracts later this decade, marginal sites die first.
09 — Who we are
Open People.
Open People is a Newfoundland and Labrador AI company developing sovereign, self-hosted computing: software built to run without resupply, on infrastructure its users actually control. Our role in this campaign is deliberately narrow: constituent and catalyst. We make the public case for keeping firm power in-province. We are not a DCIA party, an offtake seat or a demand seat. We are not asking to own the steel.
Tom Lane
Founder, Open People · St. John's, NL
Tom Lane is an entrepreneur based in St. John's. He is the founder of Open People and co-founder and owner of snōw white laundry, a seasonal restaurant on Water Street that opened in 2026. He took that project from lease negotiation through design, permitting and construction, acting as his own project manager with a local general contractor, and built its operating stack himself: supplier price intelligence, demand forecasting, financial automation and a custom staff platform.
It is a small building with a large point behind it. A regulated, multi-permit, multi-trade physical build on a compressed schedule is the same job shape as a first small compute node: site control, power and mechanical, inspectors, trades, and a licence gate at the end. He runs a 70-seat restaurant with the instrumentation of a data centre. This campaign is that continuity, applied to a bigger load.
10 — Falsifiability
What we have not proven.
This document is meant to be argued with. The following are open questions, not settled claims, and we say so in every room.
- 01That the province will allocate firm Labrador power to compute over mining. Critical minerals are named first. Compute has to earn peer status on the merits. No firm megawatts, price, queue or policy preference for Labrador compute is confirmed.
- 02That fibre economics support a training cluster at hyperscale path diversity. A first node likely fits. Hyperscale is unproven until the route studies exist.
- 03That public-sector demand alone is large enough to bank a facility. It almost certainly needs commercial and federal co-funding alongside.
- 04That binding definitive agreements will be signed on the announced timeline, or that they will free near-term megawatts for a compute node. House endorsement of the framework is not that signature, and the Premier has not promised a vote on the final text.
- 05That a single industrial cent exists for Labrador mines. The current Labrador industrial schedule is a formula, demand charges plus a monthly energy mix. We do not flatten it, and we do not quote the 2015 schedule as current.
- 06The reconciliation between the public retain figure and other published splits of the existing plant. Public releases also give Gull Island as a range. We do not pick a number.
- 07That a three-year notice recall, as described to the House, appears in signed contract text.
- 08That 2026 Gull Island matches the 2012 Lower Churchill federal review scope. IAAC has not received that proponent confirmation.
- 09The name of the wind company. The special-purpose entity is unnamed in the public paper and the federal equity share is not in the Material Terms we read. We do not invent either.
Standing rule
Every figure on this page is bound to a public primary or reported source, and shows it when tapped. Where a number is an estimate, a range or an illustration, it is labelled as one. Where the public text does not say, we write UNKNOWN. If something here is wrong, we want to know. Corrections change the document.
11 — Sources
Where the numbers come from.
Every source below is in the desk registry and re-checked on the verified date at the top of the page. The same registry feeds the tracker, the ladder and the megawatt bars, so a number here and a number there are the same object.
Primary documents and releases
- DCIA (Hydro-Québec PDF), 17 Aug 2026 2026-08-17
- DCIA (abetterdealnl.ca PDF), 17 Aug 2026 2026-08-17
- Government of NL news release, 17 Aug 2026 2026-08-17
- Canada.ca — federal release on the Churchill River partnership, 17 Aug 2026 2026-08-17
- Independent Churchill River Review Committee report, 30 Apr 2026 (released 19 May) 2026-05-19
- IRC technical briefing, 19 May 2026 2026-05-19
- Hydro-Québec DCIA release — “competitive rate of 6¢/kWh,” 17 Aug 2026 2026-08-17
- NL NDP — three conditions not yet met (PUB experts, vote on finals, Innu approval), 17 Sep 2026 2026-09-17
- Hydro-Québec — proposed 13¢/kWh data-centre rate (≥5 MW) filed with the Régie, 19 Feb 2026 2026-02-19
Regulators
Utility schedules and pages
Press
- Canadian Press — media graph: 1.8¢ in 2027; 7.4¢ 50-year average (corrected 17 Aug 2026) 2026-08-17
- CBC / Radio-Canada International — NL Hydro: 1.8¢ in 2027 rising ~14%/yr to 11.5¢ by 2041, 17 Aug 2026 2026-08-17
- Financial Post — 1.8¢ in 2027 rising to 11.5¢ by 2041 2026-08-18
- VOCM — House vote 21–18, 17 Sep 2026 2026-09-17
- NTV — House votes 21–18; Premier on return to the House before definitive agreements, 17–18 Sep 2026 2026-09-18
- VOCM — Opposition reacts: no further approval mechanism; PUB involvement, 18 Sep 2026 2026-09-18
- VOCM — Lead negotiator Barry Perry on the cancelled referendum, 20 Sep 2026 2026-09-20
- 2026 Québec general election — campaign and published polls (reference page) 2026-09-21
- Radio-Canada — Québec opposition parties on the Churchill Falls signing, Aug 2026 2026-08-17
- Globe and Mail — Québec election leaves the new hydro deal’s path unclear 2026-09-01
- VOCM — Innu Nation letter; Premier to meet, 18 Sep 2026 2026-09-18
- VOCM — Grand Chief: Premier has yet to contact Innu, 21 Sep 2026 2026-09-21
- VOCM — Grand Chief: Innu “ready and willing to meet”, never invited to the table, 21 Sep 2026 2026-09-21
- CBC (syndicated) — Innu Nation letter to MHAs urging a no vote, 17 Sep 2026 2026-09-17
- Radio-Canada — Innu Nation says DCIA cuts benefits by more than half vs the 2024 MOU, 18 Sep 2026 2026-09-18
- VOCM — Innu Nation, Sheshatshiu and Natuashish letter on Churchill River rights, 15 Sep 2026 2026-09-15
- VOCM — Keith Russell (Ind., Lake Melville) on his no vote, 18 Sep 2026 2026-09-18
- APTN — Innu in Québec (Uashat mak Mani-utenam, Matimekush-Lac John) say consent is mandatory 2026-08-20
- CBC (syndicated) — IAAC: no new assessment if Gull Island scope matches; no proponent confirmation, 10 Sep 2026 2026-09-10
- CBC, 15 Jan 2025 (2024 MOU era) — Labrador West mining load (~312 MW of 525 MW NLH allocation) 2025-01-15
Scholarship and analysis
- Power Advisory — New and improved Churchill Falls PPA (price path note) 2026-08-20
- Heritage NL — The 1969 Contract: Churchill Falls 2008-01-01
- Feehan & Baker, Dalhousie Law Journal 30(1), 2007 — two mills (0.2¢/kWh) renewal 2007-01-01
- Feehan & Baker, Policy Options, Sep 2010 — $2/MWh renewal price for 25 years 2010-09-01
Named in prose only, not in the registry
- International Energy Agency, Energy and AI (2025): global data-centre demand projection.
- Innovation, Science and Economic Development Canada: Canadian Sovereign AI Compute Strategy programme materials.
- Nscale and Aker: Stargate Norway announcements, August 2025.
- CBC and Canadian Press, 2019: reported cumulative Churchill Falls profit split.
- Newfoundland Power rate book: general-service energy charge ballpark.
- CBC and provincial media: Great North Data bankruptcy (2019); Gull Island blockade (July 2025).
Figures from these appear only inside technical layers with a caveat, never on an instrument.
Prepared independently. All figures as publicly reported. A full claim-by-claim evidence table with confidence ratings sits behind this page and is available on request.
The power has to be allocatable here before anything else can happen.
If you want firm power kept in Newfoundland and Labrador, for mines, towns and other industry, with compute as a named use rather than a forgotten leftover, there is a public path this month.